America’s Chance to Help Iranians - By Doing Nothing

Somebody, somebody please, send Thomas Friedman to the New York Post and hand his column spot over to Gary Sick.

Sick, a former member of the national security council under several US Presidents and current professor at Columbia University has been writing some fantastic stuff since the Iranian Elections last June.

In his most recent piece, Sick is urging the United States to do nothing, or at least “do no harm” when it comes to its approach to dealing with the Iranian nuclear “crisis.”

Published in the Daily Beast Sick writes:

In my view, the perpetual plea for U.S. foreign policy to “do something” needs to be changed; we would be better served by adopting the physicians creed: “first, do no harm.”

With Iranian president Ahmadinejad in New York, spouting his usual venom, and with negotiations scheduled to begin with Iran on October 1 over a package of issues, including their nuclear plans, it is the right time to stop and think about where we are, how we got to this point, and where we want to go.

First, beware of panic cries of ticking time bombs. The world may have more time and more bargaining leverage than is generally supposed. Iran has proceeded very slowly with its nuclear program. If Iran had proceeded at the same speed as Pakistan (which had far fewer resources than Iran), it would have had a bomb test and a deliverable nuclear weapon more than decade ago. Iran has chosen to remain in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and to accept International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, over the objections of its own hardliners – the only proto-nuclear state to have done so. Iran has repeatedly and formally declared at the highest levels that the production, storage or use of a nuclear weapon was contrary to Islam and not in Iran’s national interest – most recently earlier this week by Supreme Leader Khamene`i.

Here at Qizilbash, we couldn’t agree more with Dr. Sick’s analysis. Moreover, we find it strange that America’s foreign policy apparatus always seem to want to do something about Iran (when little action is needed) and do nothing when it comes to conflicts and issues such as Palestine, where much American leadership is sorely needed.

Here’s to hoping that changes soon.

Is an Israeli attack on Iran Imminent?

Ever since Barack Obama was elected President many have argued that it would be extremely difficult for the Israeli Air Force to attack Iran since they would:

1) have to get America’s permission to fly over Iraqi air space to accomplish their bombing mission.

2) If America said “no” the Israelis would have to fly over Saudi Arabia or Iraq without alerting the more sophisticated American Air Force that would be obliged to escort the Israeli bombers back to Israel.

But two pieces of news have emerged this weekend that seems to imply that two major binds have been broken for Israel’s war apparatus vis-a-vis its efforts to attack Iran.

The first  was Vice-President Joe Biden’s interview with George Stephanopoulos this Sunday in Baghdad where the Veep declared, “Israel can determine for itself - it’s a sovereign nation - what’s in their interest and what they decide to do relative to Iran and anyone else.”

Biden is well known for saying things he shouldn’t say, but anyone who knows anything about American-Israeli relations knows that Israel almost never takes major military action without first consulting with the United States.

But what is more telling of a possible strike is the huge news from Times of London which reports that Saudi Arabia has granted Israel the right to use it’s airspace for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

From the report:

Although the countries have no formal diplomatic relations, an Israeli defence source confirmed that Mossad maintained “working relations” with the Saudis.

John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations who recently visited the Gulf, said it was “entirely logical” for the Israelis to use Saudi airspace.

Bolton, who has talked to several Arab leaders, added: “None of them would say anything about it publicly but they would certainly acquiesce in an overflight if the Israelis didn’t trumpet it as a big success.”

Arab states would condemn a raid when they spoke at the UN but would be privately relieved to see the threat of an Iranian bomb removed, he said.

It’s my view that any strike against Iran will inevitably bring disaster to the entire region. Moreover, it will put a permanent nail in the coffin of Iran’s now surging reformist movement.

Ultimately all of this could be psychological warfare. As with everything in the Middle East, only time will tell.